The demography of education in Brazil: inequality of educational opportunities based on Grade Progression Probability (1986-2008)

This article shows evidence regarding the educational attainment and inequality of educational opportunities in Brazil based on the grade progression probability method (GPP) between the years 1981 and 2008. We describe some stylised facts about the educational trajectory in Brazil, then we test two hypothesis suggested by Mare (1979, 1980). The first hypothesis states that the effect of social origins decreases along the educational trajectory. The second states that the educational expansion between two periods would reduce the inequality of educational opportunities in a given grade. Results show an increase in grade probability in nearly all grades, but this trend is most striking in the earlier stages. Educational stratification results show that Mare's first hypothesis could not be corroborated. The second hypothesis was partly confirmed. We found a decline during the period analysed on the effect of household head's education on grade progression at the earlier transitions. Furthermore, the selectivity pattern seemed to be transferred to later grade transitions.