An individual-tree diameter growth model for managed uneven-aged oak-shortleaf pine stands in the Ozark Highlands of Missouri, USA

▶ Individual-tree, mixed-effect models were effective at predicting diameter growth. ▶ Models highlight the importance of competitive position as a growth predictor. ▶ Standwise calibration improved model prediction. ▶ Single tree and three tree calibration yield a similar quality of prediction. The Pioneer Forest encompasses more than 60,000ha in the Ozark Highlands of Missouri, USA and has been managed using single-tree selection since the early 1950s. This paper quantifies the influence of tree size and competitive position, stand density, species composition, and site quality on ten-year (1992–2002) diameter increment within oak (Quercus spp.) and shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) stands on the Pioneer Forest. An individual-tree model was developed for each species using mixed-effects regression and 290 inventory plots. Model efficiency (R2) ranged from 0.26 to 0.57 and fit was generally better for oak species. Basal area in larger trees (BAL) and tree diameter were significant predictors for all species and crown competition factor improved prediction for shortleaf pine and hickory (Carya spp.). Effect of species composition and site quality on diameter growth was not consistent across species. Models were evaluated using a subset of data not included in model fitting and the effect of single tree and standwise (1, 3, or 5 sample trees) calibration on model predictions were evaluated. Inclusion of random effects through calibration improved model prediction for all species and fit was best following single tree and 3 tree calibration.