Estimating probability of sustained recovery from mild to moderate depression in primary care: evidence from the THREAD study

It is important for doctors and patients to know what factors help recovery from depression. Our objectives were to predict the probability of sustained recovery for patients presenting with mild to moderate depression in primary care and to devise a means of estimating this probability on an individual basis. Participants in a randomized controlled trial were identified through general practitioners (GPs) around three academic centres in England. Participants were aged >18 years, with Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD) scores 12-19 inclusive, and at least one physical symptom on the Bradford Somatic Inventory (BSI). Baseline assessments included demographics, treatment preference, life events and difficulties and health and social care use. The outcome was sustained recovery, defined as HAMD score