Method of quantile estimates of uncertainties

It is shown that numerical simulation methods which do not have estimated intervals of determination of the physical parameters or an estimated variance of the results do not provide any additional information about the physical process being studied. An approximate, calibrated, analytical method of analyzing uncertainties-the method of quantile estimates-which is used in analytical and various finite-difference and other computational models of events being analyzed and which is free of the drawbacks of the Monte-Carlo method is proposed. Examples of the use of the method of quantile estimates of uncertainties are analyzed.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]