Predictive Factors for Relapse after an Integrated Inpatient Treatment Programme for Unipolar Depressed and Bipolar Alcoholics

Aim: The aim of this study was to examine prospectively examined predictors of relapse in alcohol dependence with comorbid affective disorder. Methods: One hundred and eighty-three unipolar depressed or bipolar alcoholics who completed an integrated inpatient treatment programme for dual diagnosis were assessed at baseline, post-treatment discharge and at 3 and 6 months post treatment. Backwards stepwise likelihood ratio multiple logistic regression was used to investigate the impact of multiple covariates on relapse to alcohol in the 0–3- and 3–6-month period post discharge. Results: The retention rate at 3 months post discharge was 95.3% (177 patients) and at 6 months it was 87.4% (162 patients). Higher level of anxiety at baseline and discharge was significantly associated with relapse at 3, but not at 6 months, in all subjects. Higher baseline alcohol use disorder identification test scores were associated with relapse at 3 and at 6 months. Intention and planning to attend aftercare after discharge from the hospital were associated with non-relapse at 3 and 6 months, respectively. Levels of depression, of elation and of craving at baseline were not significantly predictive of relapse. Those who had relapsed at 3 months were significantly more likely to remain drinking at 6 months. Rehospitalization within the first 3 months post discharge appeared to be protective against further relapse. Conclusions: Baseline patient factors, including levels of anxiety, appear to play a significant role in relapse to alcohol in this difficult to treat population.