Cognitive Managers and Their Critics

Social scientists tend to approach the study of international decision-making from an at least implicitly evaluative, rather than descriptive or explanatory, standpoint. The evaluation of decision-maker performance almost always results in the finding that leaders do not live up to the criteria of rationality and complex thinking espoused by the researcher. However, these criteria are not necessarily correct or even relevant. Decision-makers must cope with uncertain, ambiguous, changing, inadequate, and/or excessive information; high threat and reward; different time perspectives and pressures; and a multiplicity of values, goals, constraints, and opportunities. As cognitive managers, they need to make good metadecisions (i.e., deciding what strategy to adopt and how much time and effort to expend on particular decisions). No simple prescription, whether it advocates adherence to formal logic, understanding of the laws of probability, or maximal complexity of information search and processing, can adequately guide this effort.