Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters

Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters

This paper investigates whether some forecasters consistently outperform others using Japanese CPI forecast data of 42 forecasters over the past 18 quarters. It finds that the accuracy rankings of 0, 1, 2, and 5‐month forecasts are significantly different from those that might be expected when all f...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of forecasting 2010-08, Vol.29 (5), p.435-441
1. Verfasser: Ashiya, Masahiro
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Accuracy
Comparative analysis
Consumer Price Index
Economic forecasts
Evaluation
forecast accuracy
forecast rationality
Forecasting techniques
Forecasts
industrial organization
Japan
Studies
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Zusammenfassung:This paper investigates whether some forecasters consistently outperform others using Japanese CPI forecast data of 42 forecasters over the past 18 quarters. It finds that the accuracy rankings of 0, 1, 2, and 5‐month forecasts are significantly different from those that might be expected when all forecasters had equal forecasting ability. Moreover, their rankings of the relative forecast levels are also significantly different from a random one. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN:0277-6693
1099-131X
DOI:10.1002/for.1130