Estimating the Impact of Anti-dumping and Anti-cartel Actions Using Intervention Analysis

Intervention analysis is proposed as a method for estimating the effects of anti-dumping actions in the presence of a domestic cartel. Data requirements and modelling effort compare favourably with traditional structural model approaches. The method is applied to an anti-dumping action brought to the European Commission and in which the European producers of the product were fined after an anti-cartel action by the Commission covering an over-lapping period. Intervention analysis is applied to distinguish the effects of the anti-dumping action from those of changes in cartel behaviour.