Elite and Mass Foreign Policy Opinions: Who Is Leading This Parade?

Objective. Previous research on opinions related to foreign policy has reported that elites and masses have similarly structured opinions; however, few researchers have analyzed the dynamic relationship between specific elite and mass opinions. We seek to determine whether, consistent with elite theory, elites shape mass opinions or, consistent with democratic-responsiveness theory, whether the masses shape elite opinions. Methods. We use a pooled time-series design to analyze mass and elite foreign policy opinions from 1974 to 1994. Results. Our findings indicate that the relationship between mass and elite foreign-policy opinions is nonrecursive, which supports both theories of opinion formation. Conclusions. Our results suggest that elite theory and democratic responsiveness theory are not mutually exclusive, but, instead, are intertwined in the area of opinions related to foreign policy.