Testing Significance or Testing Credulity?

The paper examines two recent attempts to analyse a set of data relating to Icenian coin hoards. The methodology of the second attempt, which is based on significance tests made on 'permillia' data (i.e. coins per thousand), is shown to be fatally flawed, and its conclusions unfounded. The danger of using analytical statistical techniques without consideration of the assumptions on which they are based, is stressed. Alternative approaches, one analytical and one graphical, are presented: they suggest an interpretation which differs from those of both the original analyses.