EU enlargement and the world trade system

The paper considers the possible enlargement of the EU towards the CEE and the Mediterranean and the implications for the rest of the world. It suggests that with some variable geometry the EU could expand to more than 20 by the end of the century and to beyond 25 by 2010. It concludes that, while trade diversion costs are likely to be low, the main costs to the rest of the world will be associated with a more inward looking EU, and the difficulties of decision making in particular.