Association between risk-assessment scores and individual-cow Johne's disease-test status over time on seven Michigan, USA dairy herds

To evaluate the effectiveness of management practices implemented to control the spread of Johne's disease (JD), we conducted a 5-year observational study (January 2003 to December 2007) on seven Michigan, USA dairy herds containing cows infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP; the causative agent of the disease). The JD incidence and prevalence was monitored in each herd annually by serum ELISA and/or fecal culture of all adult cows. A JDCP was designed specifically for each herd based on the results of an initial risk-assessment. The risk-assessment was repeated annually and the control program updated as needed. Herd risk-assessment scores were used to measure compliance with the control program and create JD-risk profiles for individual cows raised on the farms. The association between specific risk-assessment scores and the JD-test status of individual cows was evaluated using logistic regression. We accounted for clustering of cows within herds using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Multivariable models were built with purposeful selection of risk factors assessed on univariable analyses. The dataset analyzed consisted of 3707 cows raised on the respective farms, of which 616 were classified as infected with MAP based on testing positive on fecal culture or serum ELISA. Of the cows that were not exposed to the control program, 20% were classified as infected, while only 7% of cows that were exposed to the control program were infected. The final multivariable model consisted of two factors: exposure to adult cows other than dam at birth (OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.13), and feeding colostrum from one cow to multiple calves (OR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.12). Based on this study, implementing practices that minimize the exposure of newborn calves to MAP being shed by infected adult cows should take priority.