The Fiscal Limits of the Warfare-Welfare State: Defense and Welfare Spending in the United States since 1900

This essay compares defense and social welfare spending in the United States since 1900 for the purpose of determining whether either or both are excessive in the sense that they are approaching the limits of what the public wishes or will tolerate. It concludes that there is considerable latitude for expansion in defense spending, largely because in real terms defense spending has been falling in recent years; but that however affluent we are, the nation cannot afford a continuous expansion of social welfare spending at the rate of the past twenty years without very substantial increases in taxes or debt or both.