INCOME REDISTRIBUTION VERSUS ACCELERATED ECONOMIC GROWTH: A COMPARISON OF DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS

Investigation is centered on 2 aspects of economic development theory: 1. the effects on fertility and mean expectation of life arising from varying growth rates in aggregate income and changes in the income share of the poorer segments of the population in less developed countries (LDC), and 2. how these effects vary with the level of mean income. An econometric model is estimated using cross-sectional data for a sample of 36 LDCs. Simulation methods are used to predict the final demographic impacts of altering either the growth rate or the size distribution of income. Principal conclusions are: 1. The measured demographic effects are highly sensitive to the initial conditions. 2. At nearly any level of development, accelerated income growth and an equalizing redistribution operate in opposite directions. 3. In general, the effects of redistribution seem to be stronger than those attributable to more rapid economic growth. 4. An equalizing redistribution of income in an LDC typical of the sample has a positive, but small, effect on both fertility and the mean expectation of life.