The prognostic value of the determination of thyroid hormones

For recognition and exclusion of hyper- and hypothyroidism total thyroxine, index of free thyroxine, free thyroxine and total triiodothyronine were evaluated. Among 532 strictly selected patients, corresponding to the five main thyroid out-patient groups, the four parameters were estimated simultaneously. Their sensitivity and specificity including two combinations of free thyroxine and total triiodothyronine were calculated. On the basis of an average prevalence of the five above-mentioned groups among our patients and the two most frequent interfering factors (administration of oestrogens and additional iodine intake) predictive values were assessed. The following results were obtained. 1. Differences among the various in-vitro parameters are less than generally assumed. For free thyroxine and the combination of increased free thyroxine or total triiodothyronine, sensitivity and specificity were slightly higher than for other parameters. 2. There is insufficiently substantiated probability of positive evidence of hyperthyroid and hypothyroid states being supplied by all the examined parameters if these are the only criteria relied upon. The probability of positive evidence of hyperthyroid states is only acceptable if, prior to use of in-vitro tests, the prevalence has been considerably increased by history and clinical findings. 3. The probability of exclusion of hyperthyroid states supplied by the examined parameters is high. However, despite their high negative predictive value they are insufficient for the definite exclusion of hypothyroid states if the latent types are included.