Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing Uncertainty Based on a Radiative Perturbation Analysis

To provide a lower bound for the uncertainty inmeasurement-based clear- and all-sky direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF), a radiative perturbation analysis is performed for the ideal case in which the perturbations in global mean aerosol properties are given by published values of systematic uncertainty in Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol measurements. DARF calculations for base-state climatological cloud and aerosol properties over ocean and land are performed, and then repeated after perturbing individual aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth, single-scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, scale height, and anthropogenic fraction) from their base values, keeping all other parameters fixed. The total DARF uncertainty from all aerosol parameters combined is 0.5–1.0 W m−2, a factor of 2–4 greater than the value cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fourth Assessment Report. Most of the total DARF uncertainty in this analysis is associated with single-scattering albedo uncertainty. Owing to the greater sensitivity to single-scattering albedo in cloudy columns, DARF uncertainty in all-sky conditions is greater than in clear-sky conditions, even though the global mean clear-sky DARF is more than twice as large as the all-sky DARF.