Serial CD4 lymphocyte counts and development of AIDS

Low CD4 lymphocyte counts are associated with increased risk of progression to AIDS in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We investigated the extent to which the timing of progression to AIDS can be explained solely in terms of decline of the CD4 lymphocyte count in 111 haemophiliacs followed for up to 11 years since infection with H IV. A median of 10 CD4 lymphocyte counts were made per patient. By applying a simple linear model for the decline in CD4 lymphocyte counts over time, we estimated the date of development of AIDS in 96 patients who had at least 5 determinations. 84% (81 of 96) of patients were correctly classified as to development of AIDS before Jan 1, 1990 (p