Mild and moderate aortic stenosis: Natural history and risk stratification by echocardiography

To define the natural history and predictors of outcome in mild and moderate aortic stenosis (AS). One hundred and seventy-six consecutive asymptomatic patients (73 women, age 58+/-19 years) with mild to moderate AS (jet velocity 2.5 to 3.9m/s) were followed for 48+/-19 months. Haemodynamic progression and clinical outcome was analysed. Event-free survival with end-points defined as death (n=34) or aortic valve surgery (n=33), was 95+/-2%, 75+/-3% and 60+/-5% at 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively. Both, cardiac and non-cardiac mortality were significantly increased, resulting in a 1.8 times higher mortality than expected (P