The Effect of Employment and Welfare on Family Structure: Explaining the Time Trend of Female-Headed Families

Regression analysis of time series data suggests that the rise in the number of female-headed families in the US cannot be attributed to any single factor. Limited support is found for the argument that some of the change in family structure results from rising welfare benefits. These benefits were found to have a strong effect on the family structure of black women under the age of 25, but only when a time variable was included. The results for white women under 25 was also statistically significant but was much smaller in magnitude. No evidence was found to show that women over 25 respond to changes in welfare benefits. This is further supported by evidence showing that the percentage of female-headed families has continued to increase even while Aid to Families with Dependent Children benefits have steadily decreased. Little evidence is found to support the view that the marriage index has a large effect on family structure within any age or race group.