Suspiciousness, Mental Simulation, and Norm Theory

Seven studies were conducted to replicate the work of Miller, Turnbull, and McFarland (1989), who tested predictions from norm theory (Kahneman & Miller, 1986). The first three studies with stimulus materials identical to those used by Miller et al. failed to confirm that the ease with which the event might be mentally simulated affected the degree of suspiciousness. In Studies 4, 5, and 6, the improbable events were made objectively more probable, but this did not produce significant results. In the 7th study, the objective probability and attitude toward the target were varied. Although there was a main effect for ease of mental simulation, this effect was produced by only 1 of the 3 vignettes.