The employment market for 1996 diagnostic radiology and radiation oncology graduates: training program directors' point of view

In light of concerns about the job market, we describe the employment situation for 1996 graduates and the status and plans of training programs. In April-May 1996, and in a December follow-up, we surveyed all radiation oncology residency directors and a 50% random sample of diagnostic radiology residency directors about the employment situation of their 1996 residency and fellowship graduates and about their programs. One hundred percent of those surveyed responded. We compared findings with similar 1995 surveys. Differences were assessed with t tests, with a p value less than or equal to .05 as the test of significance. Unemployment 6 months after graduation was 0.8% for diagnostic fellows and less for other categories. Approximately 91% of graduates had positions that reasonably matched their training and personal employment goals. Our survey showed that programs have reduced beginning residency slots by 6% in diagnostic radiology and 4% in radiation oncology over the last 3 years. Program directors plan additional reductions of 3% and 29%, respectively, for total reductions in diagnostic radiology of 9% and in radiation oncology of 33%. Many observers were dismayed because of the low percentage of available slots that filled in the 1996 National Resident Matching Program. However, as in previous years, by late April to mid May 1996, more than 92% of beginning-year residency slots were filled. Unemployment continues to be low. "Soft" indicators such as the percentage of graduates with unsuitable positions show no deterioration. However, if major surpluses of diagnostic radiologists or radiation oncologists are pending, both the reductions in program size and the failure to fill all available slots are, to date, too minor to offer significant relief. Given the small size of actual reductions so far, the reported plans for large reductions of radiation oncologists seem questionable.