Risk Factors Associated With Recidivism Among Extrafamilial Child Molesters

This study examined the predictive efficacy of 10 rationally derived, archivally coded variables for assessing reoffense risk among extrafamilial child molesters. Follow-up data on 111 child molesters who were discharged from the Massachusetts Treatment Center between 1960 and 1984 were used. Degree of sexual preoccupation with children, paraphilias, and number of prior sexual offenses predicted sexual recidivism. Juvenile and adult antisocial behavior, paraphilias, and low amount of contact with children predicted nonsexual victim-involved and violent recidivism. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves in all three analyses indicated discrimination that was substantially better than chance, ranging from .73 to .79.