The Future of the National Laboratories

The end of the Cold War has called into question the activities of the national laboratories and, more generally, the level of support now given to federal intramural research in the United States. This paper seeks to analyze the potential role of the laboratories, with particular attention to the possibility, on the one hand, of integrating private technology development into the laboratory's menu of activities and, on the other hand, of outsourcing traditional mission activities. We review the economic efficiency arguments for intramural research and the political conditions that are likely to constrain the activities of the laboratories, and analyze the early history of programs intended to promote new technology via cooperative agreements between the laboratories and private industry. Our analysis suggests that the laboratories are likely to shrink considerably in size, and that the federal government faces a significant problem in deciding how to organize a downsizing of the federal research establishment.