Identifying students at risk for academic difficulty

A decline in the quality and quantity of applicants to baccalaureate nursing programs during the past several years has resulted in an increase in the proportion of applicants who are at risk for academic difficulty. This study attempted to identify factors that might discriminate between those at-risk students who are likely to succeed and those who are not. For a sample of 296 generic baccalaureate nursing students, the relationships between 40 potentially predictive variables and the following outcome variables were determined: 1) cumulative nursing grade point average (GPA), 2) completion of the program, 3) receipt of a D in a nursing course, and 4) receipt of an F in a nursing course. Chi-square, t test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), Pearson correlation, and multiple regression were used to-analyze the data. Sixteen variables were identified as predictive in relation to one or more of the four outcomes. Preadmission cumulative GPA and prerequisite GPA were the strongest and most consistently predictive variables for all outcomes. In addition, a cluster of variables in student backgrounds was identified that should assist in selecting those at-risk students most likely to succeed.