A MODEL FOR THE EFFECT OF CIGARETTE SMOKING ON LUNG CANCER INCIDENCE IN CONNECTICUT

Population based data on smoking history derived from NCHS surveys were used to develop a model for lung cancer incidence in Connecticut. Trends in smoking prevalence suggest that, while the prevalence in men increased earlier than women, more male smokers have quit than their female counterparts. These trends in smoking prevalence suggest striking gender differences in a period effect for the smoking prevalence. Estimates of the proportion of current smokers, ex‐smokers, and the mean duration of smoking were used in a model for the lung cancer incidence rates. The form for the relationship between smoking history and the incidence rate for these subgroups was based on information from cohort studies. The models represented a mixture of the smoking subgroups where the effect of smoking was considered to be either a multiplicative effect on the underlying age distribution, or a separate effect in which the level of exposure was the sole contribution to risk among smokers. The multiplicative model explained more than 80 per cent of the deviance for the period and cohort effects, while the non‐multiplicative model could only account for trends in females. Hence, these results suggest that a sizeable portion of the period and cohort contributions to the lung cancer incidence trends in Connecticut can be attributed to the multiplicative model that utilizes this smoking information, although the lack of more detailed information is a limiting factor in developing the model.