Risk Factors of Operative Death and Prognosis Following Operations for Esophageal Cancer in the Elderly

Risk factors of operative death and prognosis in the elderly followng operations for esophageal cancer were evaluated by multivariate analyses. Data were obtained from 45 operations over a 14-year period in patients of a mean age of 72.6±6.3 years. Using a multiple logistic model analysis, it was determined that the significant risk factor of death within 50 postoperative days was postoperative pulmonary complication. No other factors were significant as risk factors with regard to survival. Cox's proportional hazards model analysis was used to assess the prognostic factors of long-term survival following operations. Independent predictors were the stage of cancer and age. We conclude that two points are essential to improve the survival rate of elderly patients with esophageal cancer; first, postoperative special attention in order to prevent pulmonary complications and secondly, performing operations at as early a stage of cancer as possible.