Change in Smoking Status among a Cohort of Late Adolescents: Prediction and Explanation of Initiation, Maintenance and Cessation

This study examined the degree and type of changes in adolescent smoking status that occurred over an eight-year period, when the group was in grades four to six, to late adolescence and early adulthood. Where changes in smoking occurred, they were more likely to be in the direction of increased (57.7%), as compared to decreased (4.1%) involvement with smoking, particularly among females. Discriminant function models were developed and resulted in 60% accuracy of classification. Variables measured in 1975 found to be related to change in status (from 1975 to 1983) were early smoking, sex, age, peer and parental smoking, prediction of future smoking, attitude and knowledge. Changes in some of the independent variables were examined and found to be related to changes in smoking. Implications for prevention and cessation programmes are discussed.