Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy
A modified Solow growth model is used to simulate the impact of the AIDS epidemic on output capacity and other key macroeconomic aggregates in Malawi. Comparing a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to ‘medium’ and ‘extreme’ AIDS projections suggests that average real GDP growth over the 1985–2010 perio...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of development economics 1994-04, Vol.43 (2), p.363-368 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 368 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 2 |
| container_start_page | 363 |
| container_title | Journal of development economics |
| container_volume | 43 |
| creator | Cuddington, John T. Hancock, John D. |
| description | A modified Solow growth model is used to simulate the impact of the AIDS epidemic on output capacity and other key macroeconomic aggregates in Malawi. Comparing a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to ‘medium’ and ‘extreme’ AIDS projections suggests that average real GDP growth over the 1985–2010 period will be 0.2–0.3 (1.2–1.5) percentage points lower in the medium (extreme) case, relative to the no-AIDS case. As a result, the size of the economy by the year 2010 will be reduced from a real GDP of 5.03 billion (constant 1985) Kwacha without AIDS to 4.81–4.77 (3.80–3.46) billion Kwacha in the medium (extreme) scenario. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/0304-3878(94)90013-2 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_76322669</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><els_id>0304387894900132</els_id><sourcerecordid>76322669</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c574t-61e7ce7b251191006460f1833638bd9b3edcaf04453bbcd5b1af40de82cd20ed3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqFkV1rFDEUhoModl39ByKDgtSL0XxNPm6EpdZaqXihXodMcqabsjMZk9kt--_NdJcKgnpxTuDkeQ9v8iL0nOC3BBPxDjPMa6akOtX8jcaYsJo-QAuiJK0FVvohWtwjJ-hJzjcYY8mwfIxOCGVENVwu0MUqZ8g5DNfVtIYq9KN1UxW7anX54VsVh7vpdYq307oabWnlah59sRt7G-xQgYtD7PdP0aPObjI8O55L9OPj-fezT_XV14vLs9VV7RrJp1oQkA5kSxtCNMFYcIE7ohgTTLVetwy8sx3mvGFt63zTEttx7EFR5ykGz5bo9WHvmOLPLeTJ9CE72GzsAHGbjRSMUiH0f0GmGs0Un8GXf4A3cZuG8ghDdKMEk8XeEr36K8QwplpSTQrFD5RLMecEnRlT6G3aG4LNHJqZEzFzIkZzcxeaoUX2-SBLMIK71wCAh135X7MzzHJW2r4U0UXKbChFS42lyu8ZJpRZT31Z9uLodNv24H87OEZegPcHAEpMuwDJZBdgcOBDAjcZH8O_7f4CzJC75g</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1300297291</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>RePEc</source><source>Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals</source><source>Periodicals Index Online</source><creator>Cuddington, John T. ; Hancock, John D.</creator><creatorcontrib>Cuddington, John T. ; Hancock, John D.</creatorcontrib><description>A modified Solow growth model is used to simulate the impact of the AIDS epidemic on output capacity and other key macroeconomic aggregates in Malawi. Comparing a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to ‘medium’ and ‘extreme’ AIDS projections suggests that average real GDP growth over the 1985–2010 period will be 0.2–0.3 (1.2–1.5) percentage points lower in the medium (extreme) case, relative to the no-AIDS case. As a result, the size of the economy by the year 2010 will be reduced from a real GDP of 5.03 billion (constant 1985) Kwacha without AIDS to 4.81–4.77 (3.80–3.46) billion Kwacha in the medium (extreme) scenario.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0304-3878</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1872-6089</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/0304-3878(94)90013-2</identifier><identifier>PMID: 12318547</identifier><identifier>CODEN: JDECDF</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Netherlands: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Acquired immune deficiency syndrome ; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ; Africa ; Africa South of the Sahara ; Africa, Eastern ; AIDS ; Developing Countries ; Development economics ; Disease ; Disease Outbreaks ; Diseases ; Economic forecasts ; Economic models ; Economics ; Epidemics ; GDP ; Gross Domestic Product ; Growth models ; HIV ; HIV Infections ; Macroeconomics ; Malawi ; Models, Economic ; Models, Theoretical ; Population ; Simulation ; Studies ; Virus Diseases</subject><ispartof>Journal of development economics, 1994-04, Vol.43 (2), p.363-368</ispartof><rights>1994</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Sequoia S.A. Apr 1994</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c574t-61e7ce7b251191006460f1833638bd9b3edcaf04453bbcd5b1af40de82cd20ed3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c574t-61e7ce7b251191006460f1833638bd9b3edcaf04453bbcd5b1af40de82cd20ed3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0304387894900132$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,3537,3994,27848,27903,27904,65309</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12318547$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttp://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeedeveco/v_3a43_3ay_3a1994_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a363-368.htm$$DView record in RePEc$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Cuddington, John T.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hancock, John D.</creatorcontrib><title>Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy</title><title>Journal of development economics</title><addtitle>J Dev Econ</addtitle><description>A modified Solow growth model is used to simulate the impact of the AIDS epidemic on output capacity and other key macroeconomic aggregates in Malawi. Comparing a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to ‘medium’ and ‘extreme’ AIDS projections suggests that average real GDP growth over the 1985–2010 period will be 0.2–0.3 (1.2–1.5) percentage points lower in the medium (extreme) case, relative to the no-AIDS case. As a result, the size of the economy by the year 2010 will be reduced from a real GDP of 5.03 billion (constant 1985) Kwacha without AIDS to 4.81–4.77 (3.80–3.46) billion Kwacha in the medium (extreme) scenario.</description><subject>Acquired immune deficiency syndrome</subject><subject>Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome</subject><subject>Africa</subject><subject>Africa South of the Sahara</subject><subject>Africa, Eastern</subject><subject>AIDS</subject><subject>Developing Countries</subject><subject>Development economics</subject><subject>Disease</subject><subject>Disease Outbreaks</subject><subject>Diseases</subject><subject>Economic forecasts</subject><subject>Economic models</subject><subject>Economics</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>GDP</subject><subject>Gross Domestic Product</subject><subject>Growth models</subject><subject>HIV</subject><subject>HIV Infections</subject><subject>Macroeconomics</subject><subject>Malawi</subject><subject>Models, Economic</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Virus Diseases</subject><issn>0304-3878</issn><issn>1872-6089</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1994</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>X2L</sourceid><sourceid>K30</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkV1rFDEUhoModl39ByKDgtSL0XxNPm6EpdZaqXihXodMcqabsjMZk9kt--_NdJcKgnpxTuDkeQ9v8iL0nOC3BBPxDjPMa6akOtX8jcaYsJo-QAuiJK0FVvohWtwjJ-hJzjcYY8mwfIxOCGVENVwu0MUqZ8g5DNfVtIYq9KN1UxW7anX54VsVh7vpdYq307oabWnlah59sRt7G-xQgYtD7PdP0aPObjI8O55L9OPj-fezT_XV14vLs9VV7RrJp1oQkA5kSxtCNMFYcIE7ohgTTLVetwy8sx3mvGFt63zTEttx7EFR5ykGz5bo9WHvmOLPLeTJ9CE72GzsAHGbjRSMUiH0f0GmGs0Un8GXf4A3cZuG8ghDdKMEk8XeEr36K8QwplpSTQrFD5RLMecEnRlT6G3aG4LNHJqZEzFzIkZzcxeaoUX2-SBLMIK71wCAh135X7MzzHJW2r4U0UXKbChFS42lyu8ZJpRZT31Z9uLodNv24H87OEZegPcHAEpMuwDJZBdgcOBDAjcZH8O_7f4CzJC75g</recordid><startdate>19940401</startdate><enddate>19940401</enddate><creator>Cuddington, John T.</creator><creator>Hancock, John D.</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><general>Elsevier</general><general>North-Holland Pub. Co</general><general>Elsevier Sequoia S.A</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>DKI</scope><scope>X2L</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>HFIND</scope><scope>IOIBA</scope><scope>K30</scope><scope>PAAUG</scope><scope>PAWHS</scope><scope>PAWZZ</scope><scope>PAXOH</scope><scope>PBHAV</scope><scope>PBQSW</scope><scope>PBYQZ</scope><scope>PCIWU</scope><scope>PCMID</scope><scope>PCZJX</scope><scope>PDGRG</scope><scope>PDWWI</scope><scope>PETMR</scope><scope>PFVGT</scope><scope>PGXDX</scope><scope>PIHIL</scope><scope>PISVA</scope><scope>PJCTQ</scope><scope>PJTMS</scope><scope>PLCHJ</scope><scope>PMHAD</scope><scope>PNQDJ</scope><scope>POUND</scope><scope>PPLAD</scope><scope>PQAPC</scope><scope>PQCAN</scope><scope>PQCMW</scope><scope>PQEME</scope><scope>PQHKH</scope><scope>PQMID</scope><scope>PQNCT</scope><scope>PQNET</scope><scope>PQSCT</scope><scope>PQSET</scope><scope>PSVJG</scope><scope>PVMQY</scope><scope>PZGFC</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>19940401</creationdate><title>Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy</title><author>Cuddington, John T. ; Hancock, John D.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c574t-61e7ce7b251191006460f1833638bd9b3edcaf04453bbcd5b1af40de82cd20ed3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1994</creationdate><topic>Acquired immune deficiency syndrome</topic><topic>Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome</topic><topic>Africa</topic><topic>Africa South of the Sahara</topic><topic>Africa, Eastern</topic><topic>AIDS</topic><topic>Developing Countries</topic><topic>Development economics</topic><topic>Disease</topic><topic>Disease Outbreaks</topic><topic>Diseases</topic><topic>Economic forecasts</topic><topic>Economic models</topic><topic>Economics</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>GDP</topic><topic>Gross Domestic Product</topic><topic>Growth models</topic><topic>HIV</topic><topic>HIV Infections</topic><topic>Macroeconomics</topic><topic>Malawi</topic><topic>Models, Economic</topic><topic>Models, Theoretical</topic><topic>Population</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Virus Diseases</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Cuddington, John T.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hancock, John D.</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>RePEc IDEAS</collection><collection>RePEc</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segment 16</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segment 29</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - West</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - MEA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - West</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segments 1-50</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - MEA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - West</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - MEA</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Journal of development economics</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Cuddington, John T.</au><au>Hancock, John D.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy</atitle><jtitle>Journal of development economics</jtitle><addtitle>J Dev Econ</addtitle><date>1994-04-01</date><risdate>1994</risdate><volume>43</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>363</spage><epage>368</epage><pages>363-368</pages><issn>0304-3878</issn><eissn>1872-6089</eissn><coden>JDECDF</coden><abstract>A modified Solow growth model is used to simulate the impact of the AIDS epidemic on output capacity and other key macroeconomic aggregates in Malawi. Comparing a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to ‘medium’ and ‘extreme’ AIDS projections suggests that average real GDP growth over the 1985–2010 period will be 0.2–0.3 (1.2–1.5) percentage points lower in the medium (extreme) case, relative to the no-AIDS case. As a result, the size of the economy by the year 2010 will be reduced from a real GDP of 5.03 billion (constant 1985) Kwacha without AIDS to 4.81–4.77 (3.80–3.46) billion Kwacha in the medium (extreme) scenario.</abstract><cop>Netherlands</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><pmid>12318547</pmid><doi>10.1016/0304-3878(94)90013-2</doi><tpages>6</tpages></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0304-3878 |
| ispartof | Journal of development economics, 1994-04, Vol.43 (2), p.363-368 |
| issn | 0304-3878 1872-6089 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_76322669 |
| source | MEDLINE; RePEc; Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals; Periodicals Index Online |
| subjects | Acquired immune deficiency syndrome Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Africa Africa South of the Sahara Africa, Eastern AIDS Developing Countries Development economics Disease Disease Outbreaks Diseases Economic forecasts Economic models Economics Epidemics GDP Gross Domestic Product Growth models HIV HIV Infections Macroeconomics Malawi Models, Economic Models, Theoretical Population Simulation Studies Virus Diseases |
| title | Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-28T00%3A17%3A55IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Assessing%20the%20impact%20of%20AIDS%20on%20the%20growth%20path%20of%20the%20Malawian%20economy&rft.jtitle=Journal%20of%20development%20economics&rft.au=Cuddington,%20John%20T.&rft.date=1994-04-01&rft.volume=43&rft.issue=2&rft.spage=363&rft.epage=368&rft.pages=363-368&rft.issn=0304-3878&rft.eissn=1872-6089&rft.coden=JDECDF&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016/0304-3878(94)90013-2&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E76322669%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1300297291&rft_id=info:pmid/12318547&rft_els_id=0304387894900132&rfr_iscdi=true |