Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy

Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy

A modified Solow growth model is used to simulate the impact of the AIDS epidemic on output capacity and other key macroeconomic aggregates in Malawi. Comparing a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to ‘medium’ and ‘extreme’ AIDS projections suggests that average real GDP growth over the 1985–2010 perio...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of development economics 1994-04, Vol.43 (2), p.363-368
Hauptverfasser: Cuddington, John T., Hancock, John D.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
Africa
Africa South of the Sahara
Africa, Eastern
AIDS
Developing Countries
Development economics
Disease
Disease Outbreaks
Diseases
Economic forecasts
Economic models
Economics
Epidemics
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Growth models
HIV
HIV Infections
Macroeconomics
Malawi
Models, Economic
Models, Theoretical
Population
Simulation
Studies
Virus Diseases
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Zusammenfassung:A modified Solow growth model is used to simulate the impact of the AIDS epidemic on output capacity and other key macroeconomic aggregates in Malawi. Comparing a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to ‘medium’ and ‘extreme’ AIDS projections suggests that average real GDP growth over the 1985–2010 period will be 0.2–0.3 (1.2–1.5) percentage points lower in the medium (extreme) case, relative to the no-AIDS case. As a result, the size of the economy by the year 2010 will be reduced from a real GDP of 5.03 billion (constant 1985) Kwacha without AIDS to 4.81–4.77 (3.80–3.46) billion Kwacha in the medium (extreme) scenario.
ISSN:0304-3878
1872-6089
DOI:10.1016/0304-3878(94)90013-2