Prevalence and prediction of multiple organ system failure and mortality in acute pancreatitis

We studied the prevalence of multiple organ system failure (MOSF), the relations between age, pre-existing chronic conditions, local complications, systemic infection, organ system failure, and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. During the study period, 267 consecutive patients were admitted to a tertiary hospital with acute pancreatitis. Multivariate analyses were used to identify factors predictive of MOSF occurrence and mortality. Using a previously developed MOSF scoring system at our center, MOSF (≥2 organ systems) was found to occur in 63 (24%) of the patients. Cardiovascular, pulmonary, renal, and hepatic failure predominated. Advanced age (>55 yr) and chronic disease were related to local complications and systemic infection (both, P < .001). Local complications and systemic infection occurred in 68% and 75% of patients, respectively. In multiple logistic regression, advanced age, chronic disease, local complications, and systemic infection independently contributed to the development of MOSF. Overall mortality was 19%. MOSF accounted for 96% of deaths; mortality increased from 1% to 79% in patients without and with MOSF, respectively. In multiple logistic regression, advanced age, chronic disease, local complications, failure of the cardiovascular, renal, hepatic, gastrointestinal, and neurological systems independently contributed to mortality prediction. Advanced age and prior chronic disease may reflect diminished physiological reserve and predispose to local complications, systemic infection, and MOSF. Although local complications and systemic infection are important predisposing factors for MOSF, a host-dependent response to unknown specific or nonspecific factors may have a role in the pathogenesis of the syndrome in 25% of patients. Advanced age, chronic disease, local complications, failure of the cardiovascular, renal, hepatic, gastrointestinal, and neurological systems are major risk factors for mortality, whereas systemic infection does not contribute.