Probabilities of Eventually Developing or Dying of Cancer--United States, 1985

The usual measures of the magnitude of the cancer problem are annual incidence and mortality data. We present another measure of the magnitude of the cancer problem. We computed the probabilities at birth and at various ages of developing or dying of the disease within 10 years, 20 years, or total lifetime and show the trends that have occurred in these data since 1975. These probabilities were computed for males and females and among whites and blacks for 1975 and 1980, and projected to 1985. The data indicate a continuing, albeit modest, increase in the probabilities of eventually developing cancer in each of the four sex-race groups, both excluding and including carcinoma in situ. White males now show the highest probability at birth of eventually developing cancer, and black females, the lowest, with the figures for the other two groups being intermediate. Larger increases were seen for males between 1980 and 1985 (more than three percent) than for females (two percent or less). A child born in the US in 1985 has more than one in three chances of eventually developing invasive cancer (exclusive of epidermoid skin cancer). By site, for males the largest probabilities and the largest increases in the probabilities are for eventually developing lung and prostate cancer. For women, the largest eventual probabilities are for breast cancer, almost one in 10 for white females and one in 14 for black females. The largest increases are seen for lung cancer and cancer of the colon-rectum. The probability of eventually dying of cancer is increasing among the four sex-race groups and is now greater for males of both races than for their female counterparts. For males born in 1985, the chances of eventual death from cancer are almost one in four, and for females, almost one in five. With the long-term, downward trends in terms of other causes of death--most specifically, decreases in mortality from cardiovascular diseases--the effect on the population at large is greater longevity. This situation, in turn, leaves more people longer time to be exposed to cancer risks. Thus, while the probabilities of developing or dying of cancer are seen to increase, the increases should be viewed in light of the increasing numbers of people available for such an occurrence.