Histologic features predictive of basal cell carcinoma recurrence: results of a multivariate analysis

Previous univariate analysis of 30 recurrent and 74 non‐recurrent basal cell carcinomas identified 6 histologic parameters predictive of recurrence: distance to the closest resection margin, growth pattern, shape of cell groups, contour of invading edge, degree of peripheral palisading, and nuclear pleomorphism. Re‐analysis of the data by multivariate analysis to select the few most important independent prognostic variables identified two parameters in each of two final models: resection margin distance and growth pattern (Model 1), and resection margin distance and shape of cell groups (Model 2). Based on these variables, a logistic regression equation could be derived for each model to calculate the predicted probability of recurrence or non‐recurrence.