Epidemic Cycles in Agricultural Populations: A Cross-Cultural Study

A cross-cultural analysis of mortality patterns is of interest to biological anthropologists and genetic epidemiologists. In this paper, we examine four agricultural populations from Costa Rica, Hungary, and the United States in order to determine if they suffered from a cyclical distribution of epidemics. When possible, we look at the mortality time series of adults and children separately. Of the 2 series, only 2 show significant epidemic cycles. Both are in the Hungarian groups and both affect subadults. Otherwise, the Costa Rica, U.S., and adult series of the Hungarian groups do not show any periodicity of mortality peaks. Our results indicate that epidemic cycles are not as ubiquitous in small agricultural groups as the literature would suggest.