Predictors of Mortality in 2,249 Nonagenarians-The Danish 1905-Cohort Survey

Objectives: To elucidate whether well‐known predictions of mortality are reduced or even reversed, or whether mortality is a stochastic process in the oldest old. Design: A multidimensional survey of the Danish 1905 cohort conducted in 1998 with follow‐up of vital status after 15 months. Setting: Denmark. Participants: All Danes born in 1905, irrespective of physical and mental status were approached. Two thousand two hundred sixty‐two persons of 3,600 participated in this survey. Measurements: Professional interviewers collected data concerning sociodemographic factors, smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, physical and cognitive performance, and health during a visit at the participant's residency. Cox regression models were used to evaluate predictors of mortality. Results: Five hundred seventy‐nine (25.7%) of the 2,249 participants eligible for the analysis died during the 15 months follow‐up. Multivariate analyses showed that marital status, education, smoking, obesity, consumption of alcohol, and number of self‐reported diseases were not associated with mortality. Disability and cognitive impairment were significant risk factors in men and women. In addition poor self‐rated health was associated with an increase in mortality in women. Conclusion: In the oldest old, several known predictors of mortality, such as sociodemographic factors, smoking, and obesity, have lost their importance, but a high disability level, poor physical and cognitive performance, and self‐rated health (women only), predict mortality, which shows that mortality in the oldest old is not a stochastic process.