Coordinated effects monitoring and modelling for developing and supporting international air pollution control agreements

For 20 years the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution has worked to control air pollutant emissions in Europe and North America. Its Working Group on Effects (WGE) has been responsible for much of the underpinning science. The WGE's six International Cooperative Programmes (ICPs) on Waters, Natural Vegetation and Crops, Forests, Materials and Cultural Heritage, Integrated Monitoring, and Modelling and Mapping, together with a Joint Task Force on Human Health with WHO, quantify air pollution effects on the environment through monitoring, modelling and scientific review. Early work found evidence to support the need for decreases in emissions of sulphur and nitrogen pollutants. More recently, monitoring results and models have provided the scientific basis, e.g. critical loads and levels, for effects-based Protocols and for evaluating their effectiveness. ICP studies on trends show recovery from acidification effects in keeping with the fall in sulphur emissions. Steady-state models provide an indication of long-term improvements. Recent increased emphasis on developing dynamic models will enable better links between recovery rates and abatement strategies. The scientific network of the ICPs and the monitoring and modelling results have been key to the development of the Convention and are an essential component for its success in the future.