Public education financing trends and the Gray Peril hypothesis

The effects of migrating seniors on the provision of local public services in rural communities is growing in importance because of the large number of retiring baby boomers and the increasing rate at which these retirees are locating outside traditional retirement destinations. Some communities are optimistic about attracting and retaining retirees as an economic development strategy, but others are concerned that inmigrating seniors may be reluctant to support local public services, such as education, bringing with them "Gray Peril." This article attempts to clarify questions regarding the Gray Peril hypothesis and local ability and willingness to fund education in Tennessee, an increasingly popular retirement destination. To this end, county per pupil education expenditure growth is explained by growth trends in local property tax assessment and sales tax revenue, and migration patterns of the retirement-aged population from 1962 to 2002.