A mathematical model of the indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination

Rotavirus (RV) infections progressively confer natural immunity against subsequent infection. Similarly to natural infection, vaccination with a live attenuated vaccine potentially reduces RV transmission and induces herd protection. A mathematical transmission model was developed to project the imp...

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Veröffentlicht in:Epidemiology and infection 2010-06, Vol.138 (6), p.884-897
Hauptverfasser: VAN EFFELTERRE, T., SORIANO-GABARRÓ, M., DEBRUS, S., CLAIRE NEWBERN, E., GRAY, J.
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:Rotavirus (RV) infections progressively confer natural immunity against subsequent infection. Similarly to natural infection, vaccination with a live attenuated vaccine potentially reduces RV transmission and induces herd protection. A mathematical transmission model was developed to project the impact of a vaccination programme on the incidence of RV infection and disease for five countries in the European Union. With vaccination coverage rates of 70%, 90% and 95% the model predicted that, in addition to the direct effect of vaccination, herd protection induced a reduction in RV-related gastroenteritis (GE) incidence of 25%, 22% and 20%, respectively, for RV-GE of any severity, and of 19%, 15%, and 13%, respectively, for moderate-to-severe RV-GE, 5 years after implementation of a vaccination programme.
ISSN:0950-2688
1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268809991245