Lessons from Nigeria: the role of roads in the geo-temporal progression of avian influenza (H5N1) virus

The daily progression of the 2006 (January–June) Nigerian avian influenza (AI H5N1) epidemic was assessed in relation to both spatial variables and the generation interval of the invading virus. Proximity to the highway network appeared to promote epidemic dispersal: from the first AI generation interval onwards >20% of all cases were located at 20%) are near that factor, early interventions focusing on transmission factors, such as road blocks that prevent poultry trade, may be more efficacious than interventions applied only to the susceptible population.