The Demographic Effects of Katrina: An Impact Analysis Perspective

This paper examines the effect of Hurricane Katrina on the populations of 79 ZIP code areas in Louisiana (55) and Mississippi (24) devastated by the hurricane. We compare pre-Katrina population projections for 2007 with post- Katrina projections for 2007 and 2010 and estimate that Katrina reduced the areas population by 311,150 people (21.2%) from the 1,464,280 expected in the absence of Katrina. We also find a striking difference between Louisiana and Mississippi. In the 55 Louisiana ZIP codes, the black population was reduced both absolutely and relatively more than the white population (loss of 150,032 blacks v. 107,845 whites, or 32.7% v. 19.8%). In contrast, the white population in the 24 Mississippi ZIP codes was reduced both absolutely and relatively more than the black population (28,812 whites or 10.3% v. 5,003 blacks or 6.3%). Our analysis suggests that Katrina s demographic effects are profound, and may persist well beyond the 2010 U.S. Census.