TRANSFORMING PROCEDURE OF MULTI-CRACK MODEL INTO ASPERITY MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO PREDICTION OF STRONG MOTION IN SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES

Many multi-crack models have been obtained from strong-motion records as the fault models for recent damaging earthquakes. However, these multi-crack models do not specify the total seismic moment or the magnitude of the earthquakes. Neither do they have a consistent physical basis between the slip and the stress drop, because no slip is assumed on the background of the fault for calculating the stress drop on the cracks while small amount of the slip actually exists on the background. Hence, we proposed a procedure for transforming the multi-crack models into the asperity models. The asperity models specify the seismic moment and have a consistent physical basis. They are also easy to apply to fault models for larger scenario earthquakes. As an example, we transformed the multi-crack model for the 2005 Fukuoka-Ken Seiho-Oki earthquake (MJ 7.0) into an asperity model, and then showed three different asperity models to predict strong motions for scenario earthquakes twice larger than the Fukuoka-Ken Seiho-Oki earthquake.