The Relationship Between the Amplitude and Descending Time of a Solar Activity Cycle

The amplitude of a solar-activity cycle is found to be well correlated (r = -0.811) with the descending time three cycles earlier, in smoothed monthly-mean sunspot numbers for Cycles 8 - 23. The descending time therefore can be used as one of the indicators to predict the amplitudes. As a result, th...

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Veröffentlicht in:Solar physics 2006-11, Vol.238 (2), p.431-437
Hauptverfasser: Du, Zhanle, Du, Shouyu
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:The amplitude of a solar-activity cycle is found to be well correlated (r = -0.811) with the descending time three cycles earlier, in smoothed monthly-mean sunspot numbers for Cycles 8 - 23. The descending time therefore can be used as one of the indicators to predict the amplitudes. As a result, the amplitudes of Cycles 24 - 25 are estimated to be 114.8 c 17.4, 111.6 c 17.4, respectively, where the error bar equals c standard error.
ISSN:0038-0938
1573-093X
DOI:10.1007/s11207-006-0175-5