Review panel consensus and post-decision commercial performance: a study of early stage technologies

We examine the ability of review panels to predict commercial success when evaluating early-stage technologies from small business. Specifically we examined whether a screening process resulted in greater consensus among grant panel members, to what extent certain panel members “stuck” to their evaluations, and whether information sharing and panel consensus resulted in better predictions of commercial success. In general, we found that expert panel members tend to move toward consensus after discussion, with technical experts being the most “sticky”. While information sharing does not lead to better prediction, increasing consensus among panel members does indicate a slight improvement in prediction accuracy.