Pilot Model for Estimating Pedestrian Intersection Crossing Volumes

Better data on pedestrian volumes are needed to improve the safety, comfort, and convenience of pedestrian movement. This data collection requires more carefully developed methodologies for counting pedestrians as well as improved methods of modeling pedestrian volumes. The methodology used to create a simple pilot model of pedestrian intersection crossing volumes in Alameda County, California, is described. The model is based on weekly pedestrian volumes at a sample of 50 intersections with a wide variety of surrounding land uses, transportation system attributes, and neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics. Three alternative model structures were considered, and the final recommended model has a good overall fit (adjusted R2 = .897). Statistically significant factors in the model include the total population within a 0.5-mi radius, number of jobs within a 0.25-mi radius, number of commercial retail properties within a 0.25-mi radius, and the presence of a regional transit station within a 0.1-mi radius of an intersection. The model has a simple structure, and it can be implemented by practitioners using geographic information systems and a basic spreadsheet program. Because the study is based on a relatively small number of intersections in one urban area, additional research is needed to refine the model and determine its applicability in other areas.