Climate change impacts on the hydrologic resources of Europe : A simplified continental scale analysis

U.S. Country Studies supported analyses of climate change impacts on water resources have been completed or are underway in the following Central and Eastern European nations: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Romania, Estonia, Russian Federation, and the Ukraine. Climate change impacts on the hydrologic resources of these countries is being performed at the river basin scale using monthly water balance models using GCM-based climate scenarios. The authors have performed a regional analysis of climate change impacts on the Hydrologic Resources of Europe using the Turc Annual Model. The regional analysis was done with GIS methodologies using regional climate databases. The regional results were compared to the U.S. Country Studies hydrologic assessment results to validate the use of this simplified methodology for making regional climate change assessment. Results from three countries showed acceptable performance of the annual approach. Using GCM-based climate scenarios regional analyses of potential climate change impacts on the hydrologic resources of Europe were conducted and national and regional results are presented.