Declining HIV-2 prevalence and incidence among men in a community study from Guinea-Bissau

To assess the present level of HIV-2 infection in an adult population in Bissau and to evaluate sex and age-specific changes in HIV-2 prevalence and incidence between 1987 and 1996. Sex and age-specific changes in HIV-2 prevalence were evaluated comparing a survey from 1987 in a sample of 100 houses with a survey performed in 1996 in an independent sample of 212 houses from the same study area. HIV-2 incidence rates were examined in an adult population (age > or = 15 years) from 100 randomly selected houses followed with four consecutive HIV serosurveys from 1987 to 1996. The HIV-2 prevalence in 1996 was 6.8% (men, 4.7%; women, 8.4%). Compared with the 1987 survey there was a significant decrease in prevalence among men [age-adjusted relative risk (RR), 0.50; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.31-0.83], whereas it remained unchanged in women (RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.67-1.48). The male-to-female RR decreased from 0.99 (95% CI, 0.61-1.61) in 1987 to 0.51 (95% CI, 0.34-0.76) in 1996. The overall annual incidence rate was 0.54 per 100 person-years of observation (PYO), being higher in women (0.72 per 100 PYO) than in men (0.31 per 100 PYO). With the observation time divided into an early and a late period, there was a decrease in incidence with time among men (0.66 to 0.00 per 100 PYO), but no major change among women (0.59 to 0.85 per 100 PYO). The two trends differed significantly (P = 0.03). We observed a higher annual incidence rate amongst older women aged > 44 years (1.77 per 100 PYO) than among younger women (0.55 per 100 PYO; P = 0.05). There are no signs of an epidemic spread of HIV-2 in Bissau even though the HIV-1 prevalence is increasing rapidly. A significant reduction in the male HIV-2 prevalence and incidence rates has resulted in a major shift in the pattern of spread of HIV-2, from being equally distributed to being predominantly a female infection. Currently, older women in particular seem to have a high risk of getting infected.