Using predictive microbiology to evaluate risk and reduce economic losses associated with raw meats and poultry exposed to temperature abuse

The Department of Defense suffers economic losses when temperature-abused raw meat and poultry are condemned. Current US Army guidance regarding time/temperature limits associated with these foods (RISK-3 category) is ultraconservative, especially at lower temperatures. We have developed a more accurate, yet conservative or "fail-safe" computer-based tool for predicting pathogen growth in raw meat and poultry. In 20 trials of this tool, growth (> 0.3 log colony-forming unit increase) or no growth of Salmonella serovars, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Staphylococcus aureus was accurately predicted 67% to 95% of the time for inoculated and temperature-abused poultry products and ground beef. Fail-safe predictions were obtained in trials for which the tool was inaccurate. The predictive tool is ready for further validation trials and field testing. Using this tool as a supplement to the current guidance will decrease losses associated with the condemnation of raw meat and poultry products exposed to short-term temperature abuse.