A rainfall-based model for predicting the regional incidence of wheat seed infection by Stagonospora nodorum in New York

ABSTRACT Our goal was to develop a simple model for predicting the incidence of wheat seed infection by Stagonospora nodorum across western and central New York in any given year. The distribution of the incidence of seed infection by S. nodorum across the region was well described by the beta-binomial probability distribution (parameters p and theta). Mean monthly rainfalls in May and in June across western and central New York were used to predict p. The binary power law was used to predict theta. The model was validated with independent data collected from New York. The predicted distribution of seed infection incidence was not statistically different from the actual distribution of the incidence of seed infection.