A Clinical Prediction Rule for Pulmonary Complications After Thoracic Surgery for Primary Lung Cancer

There is controversy surrounding the value of the predicted postoperative diffusing capacity of lung for carbon monoxide (DLCOppo) in comparison to the forced expired volume in 1 s for prediction of pulmonary complications (PCs) after thoracic surgery. Using a prospective database, we performed an analysis of 956 patients who had resection for lung cancer at a single institution. PC was defined as the occurrence of any of the following: atelectasis, pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, respiratory failure, and need for supplemental oxygen at hospital discharge. PCs occurred in 121 of 956 patients (12.7%). Preoperative chemotherapy (odds ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.06-2.55, P = 0.02, point score 2) and a lower DLCOppo (odds ratio per each 5% decrement 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.19, P < 0.0001, point score 1 per each 5% decrement of DLCOppo less than 100%) were independent risk factors for PCs. We defined 3 overall risk categories for PCs: low < or =10 points, 39 of 448 patients (9%); intermediate 11-13 points, 37 of 256 patients (14%); and high > or =14 points, 42 of 159 patients (26%). The median (range) length of hospital stay was significantly greater for patients who developed PCs than for those who did not: 12 (3-113) days vs 6 (2-39) days, P < 0.0001, respectively. Similarly, 30-day mortality was significantly more frequent for patients who developed PCs than for those who did not: 16 of 121 (13.2%) vs 6 of 835 (0.7%), P < 0.0001. These data show that PCs after thoracic surgery for lung cancer can be predicted with moderate accuracy based on DLCOppo and whether patients had chemotherapy. Forced expired volume in 1 s was not a predictor of PCs.