Seasonal Variation of Mean Birth Weight and Births in Nagano Prefecture

Seasonal variation of mean birth weight in Nagano Prefecture was examined by a traditional time series analysis, which decomposes the variation in a series into trend, seasonal variation, other cyclic changes, and remaining irregular fluctuations, based on the data in Vital Statistics from January 1974 to December 1983. The seasonal index of mean birth weight showed a unimodal pattern with a peak in June for males, and a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and autumn in females with statistical significance. Previous reports have revealed that gestational period is the most important factor associated with birth weight. Therefore, we carried out time series analysis for the mean gestational period and observed an apparent seasonal periodicity, which showed a unimodal pattern with a bottom in winter for both sexes and parities. According to the results of statistical testing of the degree of coincidence between two time series, the time series of mean birth weight and that of mean gestational periods showed statistically significant coincidences in their monthly variations for multiparae. On the other hand, mean birth weight at 40 gestational weeks, which reflects the intrauterine growth, did not show seasonality. These results suggest that seasonality in gestational periods might play an important role in creating seasonal variations of mean birth weight in Nagano Prefecture. The average daily number of births by month also showed apparent seasonalities both for primiparae and multiparae. Primiparae showed a bimodal pattern with peaks in February and August, while multiparae showed a unimodal pattern with a peak in May and a bottom in November. It has been said that the seasonality in marriage is one of important factors associated with seasonal variation in births. Time series analysis of the average daily number of marriages by month revealed an apparent seasonality with two peaks, one in April to May and the other in November. Lagged correlation analysis showed that correlation coefficients between time series of primiparae births and that of marriages had peaks at lag times of 9 and/or 10+12n months (n=0, 1, 2, 3). This result suggested the possibility that seasonality in marriage is related to the seasonal variation in births in Nagano Prefecture.