Prediction of rupture risk in abdominal aortic aneurysm during observation: Wall stress versus diameter

Objectives: We previously showed that peak abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) wall stress calculated for aneurysms in vivo is higher at rupture than at elective repair. The purpose of this study was to analyze rupture risk over time in patients under observation. Methods: Computed tomography (CT) scans were analyzed for patients with AAA when observation was planned for at least 6 months. AAA wall stress distribution was computationally determined in vivo with CT data, three-dimensional computer modeling, finite element analysis (nonlinear hyperelastic model depicting aneurysm wall behavior), and blood pressure during observation. Results: Analysis included 103 patients and 159 CT scans (mean follow-up, 14 ± 2 months per CT). Forty-two patients were observed with no intervention for at least 1 year (mean follow-up, 28 ± 3 months). Elective repair was performed within 1 year in 39 patients, and emergent repair was performed in 22 patients (mean, 6 ± 1 month after CT) for rupture (n = 14) or acute severe pain. Significant differences were found for initial diameter (observation, 4.9 ±.1 cm; elective repair, 5.9 ±.1 cm; emergent repair, 6.1 ±.2 cm; P